Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: positive announcements are delivered from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is expended on restraining specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from Russian territory, a capacity provided through current data. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to engage hostile guided weapons roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: defensive missiles targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably provided by partner states. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: possibly the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a automatic firearm fired at a drone close by, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely imported technology. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its target.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: several casualties, destruction and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a reliance that regional partners are evidently unprepared to fill in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from US administration provoked deep reactions, controversy and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new proposal from Washington follows the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, no doubt, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame certain parties of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington works based on a assumption understood by international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration presumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to abandon the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does nothing to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the current condition will not shift further in its benefit in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing lives and land but avoiding a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its favour.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: political desires to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not move to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on continued Western support.
