A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the country and unleashed chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the political, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or activists want to engage with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two pieces that strive for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and social figures, past examples and structural examples.
Debates encompass identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has has valuable insights to learn from the other's arguments."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster must join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
