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A bettor profited close to $500,000 from wagers on the downfall of Venezuela's president just before it was publicly declared, raising questions about whether someone profited from inside knowledge of the event.

Sudden Shift in Predictions

Bets placed on the crypto-platform, a crypto-powered platform, that Nicolás Maduro would be no longer in control by the close of the month increased in the time leading up to Donald Trump announced on January 3rd that Maduro had been seized.

One account, which became a member in December and placed four wagers, all on the Venezuelan situation, made more than $nearly half a million from a modest bet of $32.5K.

The identity is unknown. The user had only a string of letters and numbers for identification.

Market Signals Before Announcement

Market statistics shows that traders put the odds of a political change at just 6.5% in the afternoon of the Friday before the event.

But these probabilities had jumped to over 10% by shortly before midnight and skyrocketed in the morning of the next day, indicating a sudden change in market sentiment immediately prior to the social media post was made.

"That trade has all the hallmarks of a trade based on confidential knowledge," stated a financial reform advocate.

A small number of other traders also earned large payouts from bets on the same outcome.

Political Attention Emerges

Some lawmakers are beginning to pay attention.

A bill put forward on the start of the week would prevent federal workers from making trades on prediction markets if they have "confidential government knowledge" related to a market.

Market Background

Prediction markets have grown significantly in the United States, with users able to bet on everything from elections to current affairs.

Prediction markets faced scrutiny under the last presidential term. Yet it has received a warmer welcome during the current presidency.

Using confidential knowledge is illegal in the stock market, but there are more ambiguous rules in the forecasting space.

An official representative for another major platform said their site "has clear rules against insider trading of any form."